Odds Marseille vs. Feyenoord
|More less||2.5 (-180 / +140)|
|day | Weather||Thursday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How to watch||Paramount+|
|Odds are updated via BetMGM. Keep up to date football odds here.|
Marseille and Feyenoord Rotterdam played out a thrilling first leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final last Thursday which saw hosts Dutch claim a 3-2 victory in Rotterdam.
However, the Phocaeans are more than capable of turning the two around when the venue moves to southern France on Thursday for the all-important reverse game.
Marseille have been one of the biggest over-achievers against expected goals in all of Europe, but they have also come through the competition since their elimination from the Europa League group stage. The Phocaeans beat Qarabag, 6-1, on aggregate over two legs, handled Basel, 4-2, with back-to-back one-goal wins and won both legs against Greek side PAOK.
The club’s six-game knockout winning streak came to an end last Thursday in the Netherlands. Feyenoord have produced impressive European performances this season, since winning twice against Union Berlin and eliminating Slavia Prague in the quarter-finals.
The market continues to show a lot of respect to overvalued Marseille and I still play against them in this second leg.
Marseille enjoys a good stroke of luck
Marseille sit second in Ligue 1, but have been lucky enough to run well and be on course to return to the Champions League. Marseille ranks 11th in average xG per shot; 11th in shooting distance; and, sixth in expected non-penalty goals per game. Marseille’s numbers are inflated due to an overreliance on penalties, as they lead the French top flight with 10 penalties.
It’s not just the most penalties in France. The club is tied with Borussia Dortmund for the most penalties in all of Europe. Given Marseille’s style of play – a slow, patient build with lots of passing – you wouldn’t expect him to catch up with defenses in places where he should concede penalties when defending in space.
Marseille have also run well defensively when looking at their underlying numbers. The Phocaeans concede a lot of big chances to score relatively speaking, and when they are able to control possession, they are excellent at denying the opposition’s high volume of shots. Feyenoord’s direct counter-attacking approach caused problems in the first leg and I expect him to defend a lead effectively in this game as well.
Marseille have hit well above their underlying numbers and will regress at some point. The last two defeats against Feyenoord and Lyon last time out might just be the start.
Feyenoord puts on a solid season
Feyenoord have posted a truly impressive Eredivisie campaign on top of their Europa Conference League success. The club are heading for a comfortable third place behind Ajax and PSV Eindhoven, and really pushed Ajax in a recent 3-2 loss to the dominant Dutch side.
The attack has crushed many quality defenses in Europe this season, including Union Berlin and Slavia Prague. Both teams were tough to break but struggled against Feyenoord. Offense is good enough that some outlets rate it as the eighth best in the world.
It’s probably too high on this attack, but Feyenoord completely destroyed Marseille in the first leg with more than two xGs from 13 shots. The club are even more lethal when operating in space and will have much to gain once the ball is won by Marseille’s slow possession style.
Analysis and choice of bets
The Eredvisie didn’t get enough respect in the betting market. Even though Ajax were upset in the UCL, they fought their way through the group stage and were unlucky not to go further in the tournament. Eindhoven overcame Leicester City in the quarter-finals before scoring two late goals. Vitesse also impressed in their group stage with Rennes and Tottenham.
Sometimes the market is too slow to catch up with the strength of a league and I think that’s the case with Feyenoord and the Netherlands.
Combine that with an overrated Marseille side and I’d bet Feyenoord would avoid extra time, progressing by getting a result on the road at -140 or better.
To take: Feyenoord +0.5 (-130)
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